A growing number of voters think Donald Trump will lose the November presidential election to Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a recent poll.
The USC Dornslife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak poll showed 56 percent of voters said they believed Clinton will become the country's first female president. Thirty-eight percent said they thought Trump would win the race.
The difference is due in part to the number of Republican who no longer believe it's possible for their party's candidate to win the White House. Recent weeks have seen a wave of Republicanssay they can no longer support Trump, citing a pattern of sexually aggressive comments and behavior towards women.
Those concerns are playing out in the polls, with Clinton up almost 7 percent.
What the numbers say
When people were asked who they personally planned to vote for, 44.4 percent of those in the Dornslife/Los Angeles Times poll said they supported Trump, as opposed to 43.8 percent that favored Clinton.
Clinton maintains the lead among voters age 18-34, those with college degrees, lower-income people, blacks and Latinos. The often-cited gender gap still exists, – with women voters choosing Clinton over Trump 49 percent to 39 percent and male voters opting for Trump 50 percent to 39 percent.
The poll of who people think might win could be more accurate, however, according to pollsters.
"We ask voters who they expect to see win, regardless of which candidate they support. Over the years, asking voters their expectation about which candidate will win often has proved to predict elections more reliably than asking how they plan to vote. That's particularly true when the election is still many weeks away," pollsters noted.
Would Republicans want Trump Part II?
More telling numbers: Politico and Morning Consult conducted a poll shortly after the second presidential debate showing only 13 percent would want Trump to make another bid for the White House in 2020. That's 9 percentage points less than those who want Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, at the top of the ticket.
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was tied with Trump at 13 percent in possible 2020 contenders. Twelve percent said they'd like to see Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas run again; 11 percent prefer Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida; and 7 percent were for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
0 comments:
Post a Comment