Assassin's Blog

Wednesday 9 November 2016

Will President Trump be good or bad for Pakistan?

By Unknown 00:26 Media, World 2 comments

Views range from 'nobody knows' to 'expect muscle-flexing'.

DAWN.COMUPDATED 6 minutes ago

Not one to mince words, in 2012, an angry Trump had tweeted: “When will Pakistan apologize to us for providing safe sanctuary to Osama Bin Laden for 6 years?! Some "ally."”

The candidate also seems to have a soft spot for India. Just last month, he attended an elaborate charity event hosted by Republican Hindu Coalition (RHC) and promised that India and the US would be “best friends” if he were president.

So, what would a Trump presidency mean for Pakistan?

Here's what some experts and commentators think.

Space for hawks?

It will depend on how foreign policy experts shape his regional agenda. If he gives space to hawks, it is possible Pakistan may face repercussions over its association with militant groups. On the flipside, he has not spoken about Pakistan that much so there is a chance his Middle East agenda takes up most of his policy space and we end up getting ignored.

— Umair Javed
Umair Javed is a freelance columnist.

No clear plan for Pakistan

Nobody knows how Trump will approach the complexity of the issues that come with America's Pakistan policy. There is Afghanistan, there is the stability of a nuclear-armed country, there are regional complexities with India, China and Iran vested in some way or the other. For a man with a simple mind, there is no telling how he will balance all these out to draw a path forward for himself on Pakistan.

— Khurram Hussain
Khurram Hussain is a part of Dawn's staff.

Republicans as friends?

Traditionally Republicans have been closer to Pakistan, especially the establishment; but Trump isn’t your traditional Republican. I think Trump’s presidency has greater significance domestically in the US. [It is symptomatic of] the shift towards politics of hate and fear in the western world. What it means for Pakistan, who knows.

— Reema Omer
Reema Omer is a legal adviser for the International Commission of Jurists.

The devil you know

"For those who think Clinton might be a hawk regarding Pakistan, just remember it's much preferable dealing with challenging policy than hate/bigotry"

— Babar Sattar, via Twitter
Babar Sattar is a lawyer.

More of the same for Pakistan

A Trump presidency will certainly be disconcerting because of its potential unpredictability - but Pakistani policy makers will face the same pro-India slant, and the same surplus of expectations from the Pakistani military that have been the staple of US policy since 1992. A Trump presidency will not change the fundamentals of the dysfunctional Pakistan-US relationship.

— Mosharraf Zaidi
Mosharraf Zaidi is part of the Alif Ailaan campaign for education.

Muscle flexing ahead?

We have no idea how a Trump presidency would affect Pakistan, because he has not really talked about policy during this election. We aren't really sure who his team is going to be. Reports suggest Newt Gingrich is his top pick for Secretary of State. Gingrich did bring up Pakistan on stage at the June Republican Convention. He paraphrased and decontextualised a PEW study to say that 16 million Pakistanis support ISIS. He thought that was an important thing to mention. I guess that's a precursor to the kind of muscle flexing we might see if Gingrich becomes Secretary of State.

— Sahar Habib Ghazi
Sahar Habib Ghazi is the managing editor at 'Global Voices'.

Back home

"Trump win good for Pakistan. Rich, educated Pakistanis will come back to Pakistan"

— Farrukh Saleem via Twitter
Farrukh Saleem is a columnist who writes for 'The News'.

Hoping for peace

"I hope he [Donald Trump] will focus keenly to bring peace and stability around the world and demonstrate deliberate leadership in resolving the conflicts in the Indo-Pakistan subcontinent. We must trust and work together to crush terrorism and eliminate extremism from a position of strength. United States should not quit from Afghanistan; it's combat troop draw-down should be effect-related and not time-related."

— Pervez Musharraf via Facebook
Pervez Musharraf is a former president of Pakistan and the founder of All Pakistan Muslim League.

Gift to jihadists

"On a serious note: Trump's victory will be an enormous gift to a failing jihadist movement, that will have now have a renewed rallying cry. If jihadi ideology has a source of sustenance, it is the image of the US as the evil anti-Muslim crusader. They will milk Trump's win dry."

— Ammar Rashid via Twitter
Ammar Rashid is a researcher, teacher, political worker and musician.

How do you think Trump's presidency will impact Pakistan?

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India's Hindu Sena celebrates Trump victory

By Unknown 00:25 Media, World No comments

Triumphant Donald Trump elected US President, Clinton concedes

A far-right Hindu group which has been one of Donald Trump's most avid overseas cheerleaders began celebrating in New Delhi Wednesday as the Republican pulled off a shock US presidential election victory.

Vishnu Gupta, chief of the ultra-nationalist 'Hindu Sena' outfit, said supporters had taken to the streets to bang traditional drums even before Trump claimed victory and would also distribute celebratory sweets.

Trump's hardline rhetoric towards Muslims has found favour in some quarters in India, the world's largest democracy which has had its fair share of tensions between the majority Hindu population and its Muslim minority.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was before his 2014 election regarded as an international pariah after deadly communal riots broke out in the state of Gujarat more than a decade ago when he was chief minister. Most of the victims were Muslims.

Trump has called for a ban on all Muslims entering the United States and Gupta said his message had wide resonance.

“We predicted that he would win five days ago -- there is a huge support for him, his ideas, and we could see that,” Gupta told AFP.

“Now terrorists will be hunted everywhere in the world, even if they go and hide in a cave. Now only God can help Pakistan. India will now have the support of the US in our efforts against terrorists. We will be together in this. Donald Trump will do what no other US president has been able to do before. We are happy. All terrorists should now run and hide.”

Gupta's group held a special prayer session for Trump in New Delhi back in May when he was seen as a long shot for the presidency, hailing him as a “fighter and a saviour of humanity”.

They also celebrated his birthday in June with a cake, balloons and posters.

China to work with Trump, enhance bilateral ties

China said it will work with the new US president Donald Trump to ensure the steady and sound development of bilateral ties.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang made the remarks at a regular news briefing on Wednesday as Republican Donald Trump moved to the brink of winning the White House.

Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States in a shocking defeat of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

In his presidential address, Trump said, "We will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us... Nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach. America will no longer settle for anything less than the best."

"While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone," he said.

November 9th, 2016 DAWN News

Stocks slide, ATMs run dry after India rupee shock

By Unknown 00:22 Media, World No comments

Cash machines ran dry and stocks tumbled in India Wednesday after Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered the withdrawal of 500 and 1,000 rupee notes from circulation in a dramatic blitz on tax evasion.

In a televised address to the nation late Tuesday, the Indian premier announced the notes would no longer be legal tender from midnight in order “to break the grip of corruption and black money”.

The government plans to print new 500 and 2,000 rupee notes, which will be rolled out later in the week.

All banks and cash machines were ordered to close on Wednesday in preparation for the turnaround, triggering a late night rush by customers to withdraw smaller notes from ATMs.

Customers will be able to exchange their old bills for new notes or deposit them into their accounts but face the prospect of major scrutiny by tax authorities if they cannot account for a sudden swell in their balance.

While the move was praised by business leaders and commentators, Indian stocks plunged six per cent in early trade -- a fall also partially attributed to uncertainty sparked by Donald Trump's surprise strong showing in the US election.

Commentators warned the markets would react negatively to Modi's shock move.

“With the noose tightening on black money, the consumption story goes for a complete toss,” market analyst Ambareesh Baliga told The Hindustan Times, predicting stocks would take a big hit.

Major queues built up outside cash machines ahead of the midnight deadline as customers tried to withdraw 100 rupee bills.

There was also a rush by motorists to gas stations, which will continue to accept the old bills until the end of the week as will transport operators and hospitals.

Multiple withdrawals

The 500 and 1,000 notes, which are worth around $7.50 and $15, are the largest bills in use in India which is still a massively cash intensive economy.

“I waited for 20 minutes in a queue at the ATM outside my office,” Delhi resident Puneet Raheja told AFP.

“The person in front of me made a total of 18 transactions on multiple ATM cards, withdrawing cash in only 100 rupee notes.”

Many machines ran out of cash before midnight while other customers had to trudge away disappointed after failing to access their funds in time.

Ashok Kumar, who rushed to a gas station after Modi's speech, found around 50 people ahead of him in the queue.

“I had to wait almost 40 minutes to get my tank filled,” he said.

Delhi resident Surjeet Singh, who was heading to a family wedding in Punjab, had to beg friends to give him smaller bills.

“I have to collect as many 100 rupee notes as I can before I leave,” he said.

“It's a wedding in a small town and plastic doesn't work everywhere.”

While the use of debit and credit cards has increased in the last decade in India, many small businesses insist on taking cash to evade tax or else ask for mark-ups to cushion the blow.

Some $439 billion left the country illicitly from 2003-2012, according to estimates from the Global Financial Integrity group in Washington. Many of India's wealthiest citizens channel money to tax havens and convert it into jewellery and antiques to avoid tax.

Domestically, targets for investigation include temples and ashrams, where lavish donations can be a front for money laundering, and cricket betting. The property sector too is awash with black money.

Only 2.89 per cent of Indians pay any income tax at all, India's previous finance minister told parliament in 2013.

The latest announcement comes a little over a month after the government raised nearly $10 billion through a tax amnesty for Indians to report undeclared income and assets.

Markets in free fall as Trump moves into lead

By Unknown 00:21 Media, World No comments

Markets went into free fall Wednesday and the Mexican peso tanked as Donald Trump appeared to be moving into the lead in the race for the White House.

Safe haven assets rallied as investors went running for cover, with the yen and gold rushing higher.

Trump, Clinton locked in tight battle for key states

Initial confidence that market favourite Hillary Clinton would win the knife-edge race was wiped out as results showed the firebrand tycoon appeared to be heading for victory in the must-win state of Florida.

Clinton is considered by many investors to be a safer bet than Trump, who is seen as a loose cannon with policies many fear could wreck the world’s top economy.

“Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride,” Chad Morganlander, a money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey told Bloomberg News.

“Investors will be moving in a chaotic fashion to get ahead of the information flow.”

Hillary or Trump: Hopes and concerns hover over political fraternity

Tokyo ended the morning session 2.2 per cent down, having been up more than one percent at one point, while Hong fell 2.1 per cent and Shanghai sank one percent.

Sydney gave up 1.7 per cent, Seoul shed 1.7 per cent and Singapore dived 1.4 per cent. There were also losses of more than one per cent for Taipei and Jakarta.

Futures on the Dow on Wall Street plunged 2.6 per cent.

Tomoichiro Kubota, a senior analyst at Matsui Securities in Tokyo, said: “Overall, the market has priced in a Hillary victory by about 80 to 90 percent. If Trump wins, we can’t deny the possibility of wild moves.”

The Mexican peso — which was battered by Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric earlier in the campaign — tumbled towards record lows against the dollar.

Pakistan in a fix to pick sides in US presidential poll

The greenback at one point hit 19.8619 pesos up almost 10 per cent from its earlier low and close to its record of 19.93 pesos.

The peso is considered a proxy of Trump’s chances because of his anti-Mexican rhetoric — including his pledge to remove undocumented immigrants, build a border wall and tear up a trade deal.

However the dollar tumbled against the yen as investors rushed into the Japanese unit, which is considered a safe bet in times of uncertainty and turmoil. The greenback was at 102.40 yen, down from above 105 Tuesday.

The euro also rose one per cent against the dollar, while gold soared 1.6 percent to $1,305.

Oil prices plunged, with WTI sinking 3.3 per cent and Brent 2.8 per cent lower.

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 2.2 per cent at 17,788.90 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng: DOWN 2.1 per cent at 22,427.87

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 1.0 per cent at 3,115.74

Dollar/Mexican peso: UP at 19.8078 from 18.6152 pesos late Tuesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2406 from $1.2378 Tuesday

Euro/pound: DOWN at 89.30 pence from 89.03 pence

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1150 from $1.1020

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 102.40 yen from 105.14 yen

Oil – West Texas Intermediate: DOWN $1.50 at $43.48 per barrel

Oil – Brent North Sea: DOWN $1.29 at $44.75 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 18,332.43 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.5 percent at 6,843.13 (close)

November 9th, 2016 The Express Tribune

Trump's surprise wins in crucial US states rattle world markets

By Unknown 00:04 Media, World No comments

I am a Pakistani-American and Trump's rise threatens me

Republican Donald Trump scored a series of surprising wins in battleground states including Florida and Ohio on Tuesday, opening a path to the White House for the political outsider and rattling world markets counting on a win by Democrat Hillary Clinton.

With investors worried a Trump victory could cause economic and global uncertainty, the US dollar sank and stock markets slammed into reverse in wild Asian trading. Opinion polls before Election Day had given Clinton a slim lead.

Mexico's peso plunged to its lowest-ever levels as Trump's chances of winning the presidency increased.

Concerns of a Trump victory have weighed heavily on the peso for months because of his threats to rip up a free trade agreement with Mexico and tax money sent home by migrants to pay to build a wall on the southern US border.

Trump won in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

With voting completed in 49 of the 50 US states, he also narrowly led in Michigan, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, giving him a clear advantage in the state-by-state fight for 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

Both candidates still had ways to reach 270, but Clinton would have to sweep most of the remaining battlegrounds including Pennsylvania, Michigan and either Nevada or New Hampshire.

Trump captured conservative states in the South and Midwest, while Clinton swept several states on the East Coast and Illinois in the Midwest.

After running close throughout the night in Virginia, Clinton pulled out the swing state that is home to her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine.

At 8:55pm EST (0155 GMT on Wednesday), Clinton acknowledged a battle that was unexpectedly tight given her edge in opinion polls going into Election Day.

She tweeted: “This team has so much to be proud of. Whatever happens tonight, thank you for everything.”

As of 11:10pm EST (0410 GMT on Wednesday), Trump had 215 electoral votes to Clinton's 209, with US television networks projecting the winner in 38 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Before Tuesday's election, Clinton led Trump, 44 per cent to 39pc in the last Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll. A Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll gave her a 90pc chance of defeating Trump and becoming the first woman elected US president.

Also at stake on Tuesday was control of Congress. Television networks projected Republicans would retain control of the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats were up for grabs.

In the Senate, where Republicans were defending a slim four-seat majority, Democrats scored their first breakthrough in Illinois when Republican Senator Mark Kirk lost re-election. But Republicans Rob Portman in Ohio and Marco Rubio in Florida won high-profile Senate re-election fights.

In a presidential campaign that focused more on the character of the candidates than on policy, Clinton, 69, a former US secretary of state, and Trump, 70, accused each other of being fundamentally unfit to lead the country.

Trump again raised the possibility on Tuesday of not accepting the election's outcome, saying he had seen reports of voting irregularities.

He gave few details and Reuters could not immediately verify the existence of such problems.

November 9th, 2016 DAWN News

These #ElectionNight tweets are proof that the world is coming to an end

By Unknown 00:00 Media, World No comments

People around the globe are glued to their TV screens as Doomsday arrives.

Folks, it was nice knowing you all.

If the US Presidential debates seemed promising with Hillary taking over the Oval Office, it now seems that we were wrong... shakes head SO wrong. As the 2016 Presidential Election draws to a close, we're on the verge of a panic attack. No joke.

But we're not the only ones stirring in our seats biting our nails furiously, people around the globe are glued to their TV screens as Doomsday arrives.

Here's a look at what they're saying on Twitter: